Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.