Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
