Australia's Failed Bid to Host Cop31 Appears Chaotic – But It Could Actually Be the Optimal Outcome Possible

Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's protracted campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the best chance available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.